Polling stations across Moldova and abroad have just closed in a pivotal twin election, which could define the country’s future direction. In two crucial votes – the presidential election and a referendum on EU accession – Moldovans were asked to decide whether to re-elect the pro-EU incumbent President Maia Sandu and whether to constitutionally anchor Moldova’s European trajectory, requiring significant structural reforms. While technically separate, these votes are widely perceived as a singular, decisive choice between aligning with the European Union or gravitating back towards Russia’s sphere of influence, in a kind of all-or-nothing scenario.
Over the past few months, President Sandu, a former World Bank economist and Harvard graduate who already served as Minister for Education (2012-2015) and co-founded the Party of “Action and Solidarity” (Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate, PAS), has systematically run a campaign focused on domestic issues, deliberately downplaying geopolitical tensions to minimise the impact of disinformation and to mitigate the risks of eroding public confidence in the democratic process. As voters went to the polls, the Moldovan electorate remained starkly divided. While Sandu emphasised that support for the European Union remains strong in this country of almost 3 million people, she noted that Russian-backed efforts to demobilise voters, particularly in relation to the referendum, were intensifying. Indeed, both the referendum and the presidential election are widely seen by international audience as a litmus test for Moldova’s future, with widespread accusations of Russian interference, vote-buying, hybrid attacks, and disinformation underlining the high stakes of these current elections.
The influence of Russia in Moldova is not limited to soft power. In addition to maintaining a military base in the breakaway region of Transnistria, which lies along Moldova’s border with Ukraine, Russia’s influence extends into the fragile, autonomous region of Gagauzia in the south of the country. The Gagauz, a Turkic ethnic minority, were subjected to Russification during the Soviet period, and today, few speak their native language, Gagauz. Most Gagauz people rely on Russian as their primary language and consume information predominantly from Russian sources. Meanwhile, many Gagauz have lived and worked in Russia, with a large number returning to Moldova as Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine escalated. Fears of conscription and being sent to the front lines, particularly given that many hold both Moldovan and Russian citizenship, prompted their return in the past months.
The incumbent governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Gutul, the governor of Gagauzia, is a prominent supporter of Vladimir Putin and has been sanctioned by the EU for actions perceived as a threat to Moldova’s sovereignty and independence. She is accused of channelling Russian funds between 2019 and 2022 to support the now-banned pro-Russian “Shor” party, led by Ilan Shor, an exiled businessman convicted of fraud in Moldova, which is also highlighting the complex challenges Moldova faces in its efforts to maintain its independence while navigating the influences of both the EU and Russia.
Provisional Results of Moldova Referendum: A Thin Margin for EU Membership
The result of the nationwide referendum on whether the country should amend the Constitution of Moldova to include the Moldovan citizens’ wish for European Union membership was razor-thin, with 50.46% of voters backing constitutional changes to pursue EU membership, while 49.54% opposed by answering the question “Do you support the amendment of the Constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union?”. Though not an overwhelming success, such a narrow victory strengthens Sandu’s position ahead of the likely presidential run-off. As of Monday morning, with 99.2% of the vote counted, Sandu had secured a lead that sets the stage for a second-round face-off on 3 November 2024 against her main concurrent, Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general. Stoianoglo, who garnered 26.32% of the vote, has advocated for a “balanced” foreign policy, promising to maintain ties not only with the EU and US, but also with Russia and China.
The Mobilisation of The Diaspora Vote and the Multiple Parallelisms with Georgia’s Elections
The Moldovan diaspora, constituting roughly a third of the country’s population, played a decisive role in this election. High levels of facilitation for voting contributed significantly to the results of the referendum, despite the narrow majority in favour of EU membership. In particular, President Sandu placed significant confidence in the diaspora’s response to her heartfelt appeals, having actively courted them in the lead-up to the vote. Her strategy centred on directly engaging with Moldovans abroad, especially students and workers, through personal phone calls and social media campaigns, encouraging them to participate in both the presidential election and the EU referendum. The involvement of the diaspora was indeed viewed as pivotal in shaping the future of the country through the electoral participation.
The high-stakes election has also drawn the attention of European officials, who are closely watching Moldova’s political trajectory. A shift towards Moscow could represent a significant setback for Western interests, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted the EU to prioritise enlargement. As Georgia heads to the polls on Saturday, 26th October, tensions culminated in a large pro-European rally in Tbilisi on 20th October, while Moldova’s concurrent election further amplifies regional significance of the vote and the outcomes of the referendum due to both countries’ strategic proximity to Russia.
The Presence of the International Election Observation Mission in Moldova
Following the International Election Observation Mission, Moldova’s presidential election and constitutional referendum were officially deemed “well-managed and competitive, despite serious attempts to undermine their integrity”. The preliminary statement issued earlier this afternoon acknowledged free campaigning, though it noted concerns over illicit foreign interference and disinformation. However, unequal campaign conditions were highlighted as a factor affecting the level playing field among candidates. Lucie Potůčková, Special Co-ordinator of the OSCE observers and Member of the Chamber of Deputies of Czech Republic, praised Moldova’s efforts to increase public confidence in the electoral system, while also noting areas for improvement, in particular as regards the “overlapping period between candidate registration and the campaign, for example, has created an uneven playing field, which is something we would like to see improved”.
Petra Bayr, Head of the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, commended Moldova’s leadership for consulting the population amid Russian aggression and Kremlin-backed interference, confirming the need to “support Moldova in further strengthening its inclusive and open society. Success will depend on further democratic reforms and the ability to combat disinformation and external interference, ensuring Moldova’s democratic process remains legitimate and transparent”.
Michael Gahler, representing the European Parliament, applauded Moldova for a well-managed election despite Russian interference and stressed the importance of resisting foreign meddling in the second round of the presidential election and the 2025 parliamentary elections. While the legal framework for the election provided a basis for democratic processes, frequent last-minute amendments impacted legal certainty. The referendum framework also had shortcomings, such as insufficient safeguards against the misuse of public resources. Johan Büser, Head of the delegation from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, noted that “the substantial number of international observers that deployed to observe the elections serve as a testament to the international community’s steadfast support for Moldova’s democratic path” while also highlighting foreign interference and disinformation as significant issues, with traditional views on minorities and LGBT rights framing the “No” vote in the EU referendum, “in the context of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine”. Overall, the preliminary report from the International Election Observation Mission positively assessed the voting process and vote count, though observers highlighted the lack of a level playing field as a challenge to the elections’ fairness. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights emphasised recommendations aimed at improving fair competition, with a strong focus on enhancing citizens’ confidence and electoral resilience.
The Role of Youth Participation in Moldova’s Twin Elections
Youth participation, although less specifically covered by mainstream media, also played a critical role in Moldova’s twin elections. Faced with the risk of very low youth turnout – given that only 31.3% of voters under 35 cast their ballots in the 2021 Moldovan parliamentary elections, and only 17% of candidates in the three largest parties were under 35 – the Moldovan government has taken steps to increase youth engagement, recognising their potential role in the country’s democratic process and aspirations for EU membership, mostly by implementing measures to ensure access to voting opportunities and counter the disillusionment many young Moldovans feel towards traditional political structures, which they often perceive as out of touch with their needs. Critics, however, have highlighted that much of this mobilisation was driven by EU-backed initiatives and a strong push to activate the diaspora vote, which is predominantly composed of young Moldovans.
Given the deeply polarised atmosphere surrounding Moldova’s twin elections, we spoke to two young voters who shared their distinct perspectives on the country’s future on the election days and shared their feelings and fears. One was a first-time voter from the diaspora, while the other was based in the capital, Chișinău.
Cătălin, 18 years old, began by reflecting on the importance of the twin elections in Moldova, stating, “For me, the twin vote in Moldova holds immense significance. It symbolises our ability, particularly as young people in the diaspora, to influence the future of our homeland. This engagement not only strengthens our connection to Moldova but also highlights our role in shaping its democratic processes. By participating in this election, we can demonstrate our commitment to Moldova’s aspirations for EU integration”. He went on to express his thoughts on the voting process abroad, saying: “I feel extremely happy and proud to know that, even though I am far from home, I can contribute to the future of the Republic of Moldova through my vote. My participation in the electoral process is not just a civic duty, but also an opportunity to influence the future of my country, my family, friends, and the community I belong to. It is true, in my opinion, that every vote count and it is important to raise awareness of this fact by mobilising as many people as possible to get involved in the democratic process”.
Cătălin, currently studying in Armenia on a scholarship, had to travel to the United Arab Emirates to cast his ballot at the nearest polling station. “Although the distance of about 2,000 km between Armenia and Abu Dhabi (UAE) is considerable, I firmly believe that my vote has a real impact,” he added. “I truly believe that every choice has the power to change the direction in which the country is headed, and mobilising citizens is crucial to reflecting the will of the people. It is important for us to make our voices heard and to exercise our rights, regardless of where we are”. He further shared his appreciation for the efforts made to facilitate voting for Moldovans living abroad: “I am glad that Moldovans in the diaspora, even those far from polling stations, were given the opportunity to vote without letting distance be a barrier. Each of us has strong ties to our country, whether through our grandparents, relatives, or friends, and I think it is important for us to mobilise and express our opinions, both in elections and referenda. In particular, I hope that other young people studying abroad, like me, are now actively participating in this democratic exercise. As young people, we are the ones who will shape the future, and our involvement today will determine the course of tomorrow”.
When asked if this was his first time voting abroad, he immediately answered: “Yes, this is my first vote abroad, and also my first vote ever… and it felt empowering to participate in such a significant moment for Moldova. This experience gave me a sense of pride and responsibility, knowing that my vote could impact my country’s future. Despite some logistical challenges, the opportunity to engage in the democratic process from abroad was truly meaningful for me and I hope for many other people as well”.
On the topic of diaspora votes and ongoing debates in other European countries not yet part of the EU, Cătălin mentioned, “I am aware that this year has seen significant discussions regarding the admissibility of diaspora votes, particularly in Albania, ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections. Key issues include ensuring the integrity of the voting process and making it accessible for everyone and there are also great opportunities to improve technology and communication about our voting rights as young people living abroad for many different reasons. For instance, as young Moldovans, I think that we must advocate for public policies that recognise our vital role in shaping the future of our country, especially during pivotal elections like this one. I hope we can inspire other countries to upgrade their regulations as well”.
Moving to the heart of the country, in Chișinău, I spoke with Vika, just a few years older than Cătălin. Like him, she has built an international background gaining experiences abroad, but she offers a distinct perspective, having witnessed the current elections, reflecting on the potential institutional and constitutional changes, and the diaspora voting opportunities that her peers abroad are enjoying, while she is casting her vote in her homeland and currently living back there.
Vika shared her views on the current elections with clarity and confidence: “The situation, from my point of view – she says – is that the institutions in power are promoting EU integration and they ask us to merely confirm and vote “yes”, go for it, which is fine. A lot of people are not against it, they are in favour, because we hope this accession to the European Union will give us a lot of opportunities of free movement, of better jobs, better salaries, better pensions, etc. But at the same time, they are also asking us to vote basically for agreeing to edit our constitution according to the European values, which is putting European values before our country’s values. So, by voting yes for this, we would give up our independence, our sovereignty. And I believe that we do not have to change our constitution in order to integrate, in order to be part of the European Union”. She continues by saying that “The vote for the referendum, as it is formulated, puts us in a very uncomfortable situation and basically abolishes our right to decide on anything in our country. I believe that we do not need to vote on changing the constitution in terms of European values, European referenda, or anything, because constitutional changes are made by Parliament. And this is already happening; it doesn’t matter… so why would we vote for Europe deciding on anything that happens in our country? I am afraid that this will create a situation where we will be pulled into the war and say ‘yes’ to all of the NATO forces, stationing here, effectively making Moldova a buffer zone for someone else’s wars, while we still do not even have the capacity for a normal life. So, for me, I will vote ‘no’, because I know that I do not need to change the constitution of my country in order to be part of the European Union, and it is a pity that many people do not understand this. They may think they are voting for the European Union, for being part of it, but in the end, they will wake up and realise what they have done. Then, it will be too late”.
Vika continues by acknowledging that “these elections tomorrow… it is going to be the biggest deal in our political life so far. Now it’s very difficult, and now it’s very difficult even to decide. It is true that it feels like a pivotal moment for Moldova. The constitutional changes being proposed, particularly regarding EU accession, could fundamentally reshape our future. While I think that in principle it is great that my peers in the diaspora have the opportunity to vote and contribute, it is just as important for those of us here to engage and make our voices heard. The changes we are voting on won’t just impact those living abroad… they will instead affect the daily lives of everyone here in Moldova. Now, we really have to sit down and think who we have to vote for, because everybody has their agenda, and not everyone is playing in the interests of their country, as always, in these terms, we have to choose something that is a lesser evil at this point”. While recalling the diaspora’s involvement which has been intensely promoted at the central level, she mainly emphasised the importance of local engagement by saying that “It is heartening to see the diaspora so much involved, and the efforts to encourage their participation have been impressive. However, we need to ensure that young people living in Moldova are genuinely invested in these decisions. These elections are about shaping our country, and that responsibility lies with us as much as it does with those living abroad. I may indeed seem radical, but I do not think the diaspora should decide our future, as they are not here to witness the consequences of their choices. They do not truly know what is happening in the country or understand what the country might need at the present. If you have been living abroad for more than two years with the intention of building your life elsewhere, I believe you should not interfere in the decisions of a country you are no longer physically part of. Young people here are proactive enough, not all of them, of course, but a significant number. They are more aware and informed about the political situation in their country than previous generations ever were at our age. I believe it is the conviction that they can bring about change that motivates young people to act, not the twin vote, but that’s just my opinion”.
Both voters, Cătălin and Vika, highlighted the intense emotions surrounding the election, reflecting the broader and significant divide in Moldovan society, which was also evident in the partial results of the crucial referendum on joining the European Union. While they shared the belief that these elections could significantly shape their country’s future, their different voting experiences – one abroad and one at home – also mirrored the diverse challenges, fears, and hopes of Moldova’s younger generation ahead of the second round of presidential elections, scheduled for Sunday, 3rd November 2024.